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6 countries with 6 curves: How nations that moved fast against COVID-19 avoided disaster

<p>To understand the spread of COVID-19, the pandemic is more usefully viewed as a series of distinct local epidemics. The way the virus has spread in different countries, and even in particular states or regions within them, has been quite varied.</p> <p>A New Zealand <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/04/22/effect-of-alert-level-4-measures-on-covid-19-transmission/">study</a> has mapped the coronavirus epidemic curve for 25 countries and modelled how the spread of the virus has changed in response to the various lockdown measures.</p> <p>The research, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, classifies each country’s public health response using New Zealand’s <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/">four-level alert system</a>. Levels 1 and 2 represent relatively relaxed controls, whereas levels 3 and 4 are stricter.</p> <p>By mapping the change in the <strong>effective reproduction number</strong> (R<sub>eff</sub>, an indicator of the actual spread of the virus in the community) against response measures, the research shows countries that implemented level 3 and 4 restrictions sooner had greater success in pushing R<sub>eff</sub> to below 1.</p> <p>An R<sub>eff</sub> of less than 1 means each infected person spreads the virus to less than one other person, on average. By keeping R<sub>eff</sub> below 1, the number of new infections will fall and the virus will ultimately disappear from the community.</p> <p><strong>Italy</strong></p> <p>Italy was relatively slow to respond to the epidemic, and experienced a high R<sub>eff</sub> for many weeks. This led to an explosion of cases which overwhelmed the health system, particularly in the country’s north. This was followed by some of the strictest public health control measures in Europe, which has finally seen the R<sub>eff</sub> fall to below 1.</p> <p>Unfortunately, the time lag has cost many lives. Italy’s death toll of over 27,000 serves as a warning of what can happen if the virus is allowed to spread unchecked, even if strict measures are brought in later.</p> <p><strong>United Kingdom</strong></p> <p>The UK’s initial response to COVID-19 was characterised by a series of missteps. The government prevaricated while it considered pursuing a controversial “herd immunity” strategy, before finally ordering an Italy-style lockdown to regain control over the virus’s transmission.</p> <p>As in Italy, the result was an initial surge in case numbers, a belatedly successful effort to bring R<sub>eff</sub> below 1, and a huge death toll of over 20,000 to date.</p> <p><strong>New York, USA</strong></p> <p>New York City, with its field hospital in Central Park resembling a scene from a disaster movie, is another testament to the power of uncontrolled virus spread to overwhelm the health system.</p> <p>Its R<sub>eff</sub> peaked at a staggeringly high value of 8, before the city slammed on the brakes and went into complete lockdown. It took a protracted battle to finally bring the R<sub>eff</sub> below 1. Perhaps more than any other city, New York will feel the economic shock of this epidemic for many years to come.</p> <p><strong>Sweden</strong></p> <p>Sweden has taken a markedly relaxed approach to its public health response. Barring a few minor restrictions, the country remains more or less open as usual, and the focus has been on individuals to take personal responsibility for controlling the virus through social distancing.</p> <p>This is understandably contentious, and the number of cases and deaths in Sweden are far higher than its neighbouring countries. But R<sub>eff</sub> indicates that the curve is flattening.</p> <p><strong>Singapore</strong></p> <p>Singapore is a lesson on why you can’t ever relax when it comes to coronavirus. It was hailed as an early success story in bringing the virus to heel, through extensive testing, effective contact tracing and strict quarantining, with no need for a full lockdown.</p> <p>But the virus has bounced back. Infection clusters originating among migrant workers has prompted tighter restrictions. The R<sub>eff</sub> currently sits at around 2, and Singapore still has a lot of work to do to bring it down.</p> <p>Individually, these graphs each tell their own story. Together, they have one clear message: places that moved quickly to implement strict interventions brought the coronavirus under control much more effectively, with less death and disease.</p> <p>And our final example, Singapore, adds an important coda: the situation can change rapidly, and there is no room for complacency.</p> <p><em>Written by Hassan Vally. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-countries-6-curves-how-nations-that-moved-fast-against-covid-19-avoided-disaster-137333">The Conversation.</a> </em></p> <p><em> </em></p>

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America's most interesting national parks

<p class="">I’ve long been fascinated by US National Parks. At the top of my list are Zion, Bryce Canyon and the Grand Canyon National Parks. </p> <p class="">Here’s why these are my favourite USA National Parks.</p> <p class=""><strong>Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona </strong></p> <p class=""><span>John Wesley Powell, an early explorer of the American West credited with leading the first group of Europeans down the Colorado River through the Canyon, wrote: “The wonders of the Grand Canyon cannot be adequately represented in symbols of speech, nor by speech itself.”</span></p> <p>After cycling for hours down a dusty track to reach a remote viewpoint over the Grand Canyon’s North Rim called Toroweap Overlook I have to agree.</p> <p>The stupendous view leaves me speechless. And to have this jumble of volcanic cinder cones and lava flows on the edge of one of the world’s great natural wonders virtually to myself is especially wonderful.</p> <p>Stratum upon stratum of multi-hued rock lies stacked beneath me. Dating back over two billion years, they reveal more dramatically than anywhere else on Earth how our world was formed, while two miles below, the Colorado River snakes through the gorge, carving ever deeper into this iconic symbol of the American Southwest.</p> <p><strong>Zion National Park, Utah </strong></p> <p>World famous for its massive rock walls of red and white Navajo sandstone that rise over 610 metres from the desert floor, Zion National Park is a canyon oasis of astounding natural beauty.</p> <p>Meaning ‘heavenly city’ in the vernacular of Utah’s predominant Mormons, Zion is a breathtaking blend of high plateaus, sheer canyons, and monolithic cliffs.</p> <p>These sheer walls were carved by decades of wind, rain, ice and the waters of the Virgin River.</p> <p>Once there, I soon discover that getting my feet wet is the best way to explore Zion’s most popular backcountry. In an area called the Narrows, you can explore a slot canyon which is significantly deeper than it is wide.</p> <p>Here, the North Fork Virgin River runs beneath thousand-foot walls of Navajo sandstone sculpted by thousands of years of erosion into some of the most beautiful rock formations in all of the American Southwest.</p> <p><strong>Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah</strong> </p> <p>This park’s spectacular natural amphitheatres contain the world’s largest collection of hoodoos — thin, flame-coloured limestone spires protruding from arid badlands that can rise as high as a ten-storey building.</p> <p>Spread over many miles, they resemble a ‘silent city’ of stone.</p> <p>I discover that the best way to experience Bryce’s natural wonders is on foot. More than sixty miles of trails weave through the canyon’s maze of sunburnt stone hoodoos.</p> <p>As I amble along the popular Navajo Loop Trail, I encounter famous hoodoos with names like Three Wise Men, Indian Princess, The Rabbit and even ET.</p> <p>The Palute Indians who once hunted here were the first to describe Bryce’s Hoodoos in anthropomorphic terms. Bringing fairy chimneys and goblins to mind, they still fire the imagination.</p> <p><strong>Other popular US National Parks:</strong></p> <p><strong>Olympic National Park, Washington </strong></p> <p>From its wild beaches to its lush, mossy rainforest and rugged, glacier-capped mountains, the park’s diverse habitats are ideal for adventurous travellers looking for a little bit of everything.</p> <p>It’s really three parks in one. Lofty mountains offer plenty of snow and glaciers. It’s lush, verdant Hoh Rainforest is home to Roosevelt elk, black bears and other distinctive wildlife. And its rugged coastline has miles of wild, deserted beaches sprinkled with sea stacks and tide pools.</p> <p>Nowhere else in America will you find three such entirely different worlds to be experienced within one park.</p> <p><strong>Glacier National Park, Montana </strong></p> <p>Nicknamed the Crown of the Continent because the water flows from it all the way to the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and to Hudson’s Bay, Glacier National Park straddles the Canada–United States border.</p> <p>An untouched wilderness of ancient forests, deep valleys and spectacular alpine scenery, the park is a paradise for hikers and trekkers.</p> <p>It also contains more than 130 pristine lakes and hundreds of species of animals, including Grizzly bears, mountain goats and moose, mountain goats, wolverines and Canadian lynxes. Popular activities include backpacking, cycling and camping.</p> <p><strong>Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming  </strong></p> <p>Named for the tallest mountain in the Teton Range, this national park is famous for its distinctive jagged granite pinnacles, numerous lakes, abundant wildlife, and historic barns and homesteads.</p> <p>A popular destination for mountaineering and hiking, Grand Teton is also a world-renowned trout-fishing destination and is one of the few places where anglers can catch Snake River fine-spotted cutthroat trout.</p> <p><strong>Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska</strong></p> <p>America’s largest national park, Denali is named after America’s tallest mountain, 6,190 metre-high Denali (formerly known as Mount McKinley).</p> <p>It’s six million acres of wilderness includes tundra, spruce forest and glaciers. Denali is home to grizzly bears, wolves, moose, caribou and Dall sheep.</p> <p>In spring, summer and fall you can bike, hike and mountaineer. In winter try snowshoeing, snowmobiling and skiing in the park’s rugged mountains and high Alpine tundra.</p> <p>Denali’s remoteness and strict protection of its wildlife habitat and ecosystems ensure that this arctic gem remains pristine.</p> <p><em>Written by Mark Sissons. Republished with permission of </em><a href="https://www.mydiscoveries.com.au/stories/america-s-most-interesting-national-parks/"><em>MyDiscoveries</em></a><em>. </em></p>

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